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Their friendship was tested in 2017 when then President Trump supported a blockade of Qatar led by Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. Before the Oct. 7 attack, the Saudis were in serious talks, led by the United States, to recognize Israel. 8 of 12 Israel has a major incentive to strengthen relations with Saudi Arabia. Saudi Arabia, for its part, would benefit from direct access to the Israeli military and technology sector. In March 2023, China brokered a breakthrough, re-establishing ties between two of the region’s heavyweights, Iran and Saudi Arabia.

Persons: Benjamin Netanyahu, brandished, Jake Sullivan, —, frenemies, Israel, Netanyahu’s, Trump, Biden, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin, Prince Mohammed, Bashar al, Assad, Saddam Hussein, Jordan —, hesitantly, Abraham Organizations: of Friends, General Assembly, U.S, America, Hamas, United, United Arab Emirates, Saudi Crown, Arab League, Saudi Arabia, Red Sea, Iranian, Abraham Accords, United Arab, Palestine Liberation Organization, West Bank, Palestinian Authority, The, Trump, Biden, Israel Defense Forces, United Nations, New York, Facebook Locations: India, Persian, Israel, Europe, Iran, United States, U.S, East, China, Russia, Ukraine, Syria, Yemen, Turkey Syria Lebanon Afghanistan Israel Iraq Iran Pakistan Egypt India Qatar Saudi Arabia Sudan Oman, Israel Yemen Turkey Syria Lebanon Afghanistan Israel Iraq Iran Pakistan Egypt India Qatar Saudi Arabia Arabian, Sudan, Sea Oman, Israel Yemen Ethiopia Turkey Syria Lebanon Afghanistan Israel Iraq Iran Pakistan Egypt India Qatar Saudi Arabia Arabian, Sudan Oman, Israel Yemen Ethiopia, Gaza, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, United Arab, Saudi, Tehran, Iraq, Assad, Lebanon, Lebanese, Egypt, Jordan, Bahrain, United Arab Emirates, Morocco, Fatah, Israeli, Turkey, America

☆ Opinion | Why Ukraine and Gaza Are Even Bigger Than You Think
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-25 | by ( Thomas L. Friedman | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

While the two battlefronts may look very different, they actually have a lot in common. On one side is the Resistance Network, dedicated to preserving closed, autocratic systems where the past buries the future. On the other side is the Inclusion Network, trying to forge more open, connected, pluralizing systems where the future buries the past. Who wins the struggles between these two networks will determine a lot about the dominant character of this post-post-Cold War epoch. Their hearts, and often pocketbooks, are with the Resistors but their heads with the Includers.)

Persons: Iran’s, Xi Organizations: West, Soviet, Resistance Network, Inclusion Locations: Ukraine, Israel, Arab, —, Russia, Iran, China

☆ Multipolar world opens up surprising safe havens
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-17 | by ( Felix Martin | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +7 min

This new-look cap table leaves the U.S. much more vulnerable to the vagaries of foreign investors than before. In a crisis, foreign investors would rush to buy even more U.S. debt. Reuters GraphicsA less orthodox option would be to invest in emerging markets instead. The last time net equity investment in the U.S. NIIP dipped close to negative territory was as the dot-com bubble was deflating in 2001. In the next six years the U.S. saw net equity outflows equivalent to nearly 30% of GDP.

Persons: Hubert Védrine, Xi Jinping, Joe Biden, ’, Donald Trump’s, exceptionalism, NIIP, Peter Thal Larsen, Streisand Neto, Thomas Shum Organizations: Reuters, French, U.S, United, United States, Treasury, Equity, U.S . Treasury, Japan, Democratic, Cooperation Council, Peterson Institute for International, Fed, ECB ”, Thomson Locations: United States, tatters, United, U.S, China, Hong Kong, Switzerland, Singapore, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, Argentina, Mexico, Brazil, Vietnam, India, Chile, Democratic Republic of, Congo, Washington

☆ High bond yields challenge “Pax Americana”
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-06 | by ( Hugo Dixon | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +7 min

There are also many reasons why “Pax Americana” – the period of U.S. dominance since World War Two - is under stress. The combination of high bond yields with a large fiscal deficit and rising sovereign debt is making it harder for politicians to govern the country. If anything, they may have a tougher job to make their fiscal maths add up than the United States because their growth prospects are not as rosy. What’s more, the near-record yield gap with the United States is bringing its own headaches by putting downward pressure on the yuan. These are consolations for the United States as it grapples with the geopolitical consequences of high interest rates.

Persons: Joe Biden, Kevin Lamarque, Joe Biden’s, doesn’t, Liz Truss, haven’t, Paul Tucker, “, Fitch, Peter Thal Larsen, Thomas Shum Organizations: Air Force, Joint Base Andrews, REUTERS, Reuters, Federal Reserve, International Monetary Fund, Bank of England, AAA, AA, United, Bank for International, Initiative, Thomson Locations: Lewiston , Maine, Joint Base Andrews , Maryland, U.S, Israel, Ukraine, China, United States, Europe, Asia, Russia, Britain, Washington, Republic

☆ US grand strategy can prop up the global order
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-16 | by ( Hugo Dixon | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +7 min

But the United States can prevent the rules-based order from collapsing if it keeps steering a steady course with regards to Russia and China. If the United States holds firm on its grand strategy, any new geopolitical risks should be similarly contained. One explanation for the current outbreak of crises is that the United States is weaker and more internally divided than it was during the so-called “Pax Americana” era. It could easily drop down the United States’ list of priorities, says Michel Duclos, a former French diplomat who is a fellow at the Paris-based Institut Montaigne. He will struggle to unite the U.S.’s allies as he is not a champion of either the NATO military alliance or the rules-based global order.

Persons: Donald Trump, Joe Biden, Mike Segar, Vladimir Putin, –, Biden, David Hannay, Benjamin Netanyahu’s, ”, Jake Sullivan, Michel Duclos, Putin, ’, Peter Thal Larsen, Oliver Taslic, Thomas Shum Organizations: Democratic, Belmont University, REUTERS, Reuters, U.S, Reuters Graphics Reuters, United Nations Charter, –, Montaigne, Kyiv, Trump, NATO, Thomson Locations: coronavirus, Nashville , Tennessee, U.S, Israel, Gaza, United States, Russia, China, Ukraine, Afghanistan, Korea, Vietnam, Soviet, Soviet Union, Iraq, Washington, China’s, Taiwan, Africa, Azerbaijan, Europe, Asia, India, Saudi Arabia, French, Paris, Beijing, Japan, South Korea

☆ Opinion | A Look Back at Our Coming War With China
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-18 | by ( Carlos Lozada | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +4 min

For instance, what if China seeks to take the island by force and Washington opts to not respond? Published in 2021, “2034,” is basically a beach read about how we get to nuclear war. In “The Avoidable War,” Rudd cautions that the incentives for Beijing and Washington to escalate hostilities, whether to save lives or save face, “could prove irresistible.” Ackerman and Stavridis follow that script. Both the United States and China view themselves in exceptional terms, Allison explains, as nations of destiny. “China will be a falling power far sooner than most people think,” Brands and Beckley declare.

Persons: ” Kevin Rudd, ” Rudd, Rudd, ”, Elliot Ackerman, James Stavridis, “, Allison, Thucydides, ” Ackerman, —, Xi Jinping, China’s Organizations: Marine, NATO, Harvard, U.S, . Security, Brands, Beckley, ” Brands Locations: Xi, China, Australia, Taiwan, Washington, Munich, United States, Iraq, Afghanistan, South China, U.S, Beijing, San Diego, Shanghai, India, New York, New Delhi, America, China’s, Beckley

☆ Opinion | The American Empire in the Fog of Ukraine
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-30 | by ( Ross Douthat | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +2 min

In a critique of the political thinker James Burnham, penned in the wake of World War II, George Orwell wrote:Power worship blurs political judgment because it leads, almost unavoidably, to the belief that present trends will continue. Whoever is winning at the moment will always seem to be invincible. But a war that seems stalemated, that grinds without dramatic shifts, poses a somewhat different challenge to political judgment; the observer is always tempted to discern a certain trend, a sweeping historical judgment, amid a state of ebb and flow and wartime fog. The war in Ukraine is a case study, yielding very different big-picture arguments based on developments from month to month and even week to week. The same pattern applies to analysis of how the war fits in the global power picture.

Persons: James Burnham, George Orwell, Orwell, Yevgeny Prigozhin, Samuel Huntington’s, Francis Fukuyama’s Locations: South Asia, Asia, Tobruk, Cairo, Berlin, London, Ukraine

☆ Opinion | Fareed Zakaria on Where Russia’s War in Ukraine Stands — and Much More
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-02 | by ( The Ezra Klein Show | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +96 min

Obviously, the line is not perfect, but I think that’s a very sensible line. And I don’t think that’s all about absorption capability. But I don’t think it’s fair to say that the Russians have done everything they can. fareed zakaria[LAUGHS] And by the way, I think that’s some key to understanding the alliance is a personal one. I think India, Israel, and Poland — usually, in the 70 percent-plus say they like — have a favorable view of America.

Persons: ezra klein, it’s, Fareed Zakaria, Zakaria, “ Fareed Zakaria, fareed zakaria, Ezra, Putin, They’ve, there’s, fareed zakaria It’s, they’re, It’s, Fidel Castro, Sean Penn, haven’t, you’re, won’t, Biden, They’re, Washington, Winston Churchill, Merkel, wouldn’t, —, Nancy Gibbs, Khomeini, Macron, Ron DeSantis, YouGov, fareed zakaria I’m, that’s, DeSantis, Lindsey Grahams, Mitch McConnell, Xi Jinping, ezra klein Yes, Xi, Gorbachev, Zelensky, Trump, Obama, Bush, United States —, McCarthy’s, I’ve, they’d, doesn’t, didn’t, ezra klein They’re, fareed zakaria They’re, we’ve, Simpson, I’m, Janet Yellen, Colin Powell, unquote, That’s, Jonathan Haidt, We’ve, he’s, fareed zakaria That’s, they’ve, fareed zakaria Well, gee, TikTok, we’re, George Kennan, Mike Gallagher, klein, Nirupama Rao, Bob Kagan, can’t, — fareed zakaria, Lord Mountbatten, Gandhi, Franklin Roosevelt, Ho Chi Minh, fareed zakaria Right, narratively —, Modi, you’ve, China’s —, fareed zakaria Modi, India’s, Advani, Vajpayee, you’d, There’s, India, Joe Biden, fareed zakaria I’ve, Benedict Anderson’s “, Orville Schell, John Delury, Sunil Khilnani, ezra klein Fareed Zakaria Organizations: CNN, The Washington Post, Putin, Starbucks, Russia, Revolutionary Guard, NATO, Ukrainian, Communist, European Union, U.S, Republican Party’s, Republican Party, Republicans, ASEAN, Trump, Defense, United, U.S ., Democrats, Chinese Communist Party, State, Facebook, Google, Soviet Union, Huawei, Twitter, South China Seas, Foreign Affairs, Yale Law, International Criminal, South China, . Security, Trade Organization, Pax Americana, Americana, New York Fed, America, Republican, Fox, Beijing Locations: ezra klein Russia, Ukraine, Russia, America, Europe, China, India, Russian, United States, Relatedly, Japan, Turkey, Holland, South Korea, Singapore, Iran, Venezuela, Central America, Southeast Asia, Washington, Britain, ‘, U.S, United Europe, Germany, Soviet Union, Vietnam, Beijing, Trump, Asia, Iraq, Hainan, Montana, Republic, Soviet, weirdly, South, Taiwan, Pakistan, New Delhi, South Africa, Kuwait, Russia’s, Eden, Saudi Arabia, Indonesia, Kashmir, it’s, Cuba, Pax, American, Mumbai, Shanghai, Israel, Poland, Indian, Nigeria

☆ Polycrisis may lead to polycentric world order
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-19 | by ( Hugo Dixon | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +7 min

Another scenario is possible: a “polycentric order” with multiple centres of authority, where the United States is the leading power but not the hegemonic one. Indeed, the outlines of such an order may already be emerging out of the conflagration of economic, political and other shocks often labelled the polycrisis. A polycentric order would be different from what is often called a “multipolar” system - a dog-eats-dog world where big powers have a licence to dominate their neighbours. The United States is not nearly as powerful as it was. President Joe Biden realises the United States needs allies, says Peter Engelke of the Atlantic Council think tank.

☆ 'If it blows up, it's cool': The far-out philosophy that explains why Elon Musk won't let a few baby sea turtles stop SpaceX's quest to get to Mars
▼ + stars: | 2022-04-05 | by ( Adam Rogers | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +25 min

In the case of Elon Musk v. Charismatic Megafauna, the agency intends to publish its final report in late April. Musk went on: "Either explicitly or implicitly some people seem to think that humans are a blight on the Earth's surface. Musk is talking about existential risk, the idea that something — an asteroid, a rogue artificial intelligence — might kill every human on Earth. And if you assume that future human minds will "mainly be implemented in computational hardware instead of biological neuronal wetware," as Bostrom does, you end up with a mind-boggling 1054 human lives. Musk has made the defense of "future life" his mission.

На самом деле, несмотря на попытки ученых и политиков «списать» угрозу полномасштабной мировой войны, условия для ее возникновения продолжают существовать. Страны Европы никогда не были более зависимы друг от друга — и в экономическом, и в культурном отношении — чем перед началом Первой мировой войны. Неспособность Великобритании мирно приспособиться к реалиям германского роста способствовала возникновению Первой мировой войны. Для того, чтобы избежать войны с Китаем, США, видимо, следовало бы скорректировать свои гарантии Тайваню и признать китайскую политику в отношении острова. Вопрос о том, смогут ли США мирно уступить свое доминирование в Восточной Азии и признать Китай как равную себе великую державу, остается открытым.

Persons: — —, ______________________________________________________________________ —, Джон Льюис Гэддис, Джон Мюллер, Стивен Пинкер, Джон Икенберри, Зара Штайнер, Кейт Нильсон, Маргарет Макмиллан, Дэн Сяопина, Дэн, Майк Помпео, Си Цзиньпин, Помпео, Курт Кэмпбелл, Джейк Салливан, Трамп, Роберт Каган, Эван Ознос, Джон Мерсхаймер, Халфорд Макиндер, Кристофер Лейн Organizations: Foreign Affairs, RAND, ООН, ВТО, МВФ, Weltpolitik, RAND Corporation, ЦК, КПК, Школа им. Роберт Гейтса, Техасский университет A&M Locations: XVI, —, США, Китай, Советский Союз, Соединенные Штаты, Афганистан, Ливия, Сирия, Йемен, Украина, КНР, Америка, Европа, Англия, Германия, Земля, Великобритания, Британцы, Британия, Северное море, Соединенное Королевство, Вашингтон, Лондон, Франция, Япония, Восточная Азия, Пекин, Азия, Запад, Корейский полуостров, Южно-Китайское море, Тайваньский пролив, Тайвань, Гонконг, Синьцзян, Восточно-Китайском, Южно-Китайское моря, Ближний Восток, Евразия, Вьетнам, Ирак

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